President Obama and German Chancellor Merkel threaten more severe "sectoral sanctions" if Russia disrupts Ukraine elections. Germany and the US appear to have hardened their line on potential sanctions on Russia. This is surprising and raises the stakes for what happens in the region. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Barack Obama both set a new threshold for action over Ukraine after meeting at the White House on Friday.
More severe "sectoral sanctions" have been held in reserve until now. Both leaders previously warning they could be used to punish a Russian military invasion. But they are now threatening their use if elections in Ukraine on May 25 are disrupted. In the run up to their meeting much had been made of differences between the two allies.
German industry has been vigorously lobbying the Chancellor not to impose more severe sanctions. Germany is closer to Russia and has more trade than America, meaning it has more to lose than the US.
There have been differences of opinion on the degree to which sanctions should be ramped up. But if the two leaders are sincere in the warning issued to Russia from the White House Rose Garden those divisions have not prevented agreement on when more stringent sanctions should next be imposed.
Until now, sanctions have targeted individuals and some companies and banks. Assets have been frozen, visa bans imposed. The White House has talked up the impact on the Russian economy. Others have pointed out it was heading in a negative direction before all this started. But sectoral sanctions would be far more punishing, They would target entire sectors of the Russian economy - banking, mining, financial services, for instance.
It would hurt Russia, but its trading partners too. While sceptics will question how much Mr Obama and Ms Merkel mean what they say, it is still significant that they said it. A variety of factors may be pushing them closer. Ukraine has launched a major offensive against pro-Russian forces
The German chancellor is reportedly furious about the continued detention of OSCE observers, some of them German, by pro-Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine. The US president poured scorn on Russian actions and propaganda, ridiculing the claim what is happening in Eastern Ukraine is a local protest.
Local protestors, he said, generally do not have the capacity to shoot down helicopters. The president knows recent polls show the Ukraine situation is weakening his popularity and approval ratings.
The German-US response makes escalation more likely. It is hard to see how the May 25 elections can avoid disruption given the takeover of towns in the east of the country and the presence of shadowy militia.
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